Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/39577
Title: Different forms of superspreading lead to different outcomes: Heterogeneity in infectiousness and contact behavior relevant for the case of SARS-CoV-2
Authors: KUYLEN, Elise 
TORNERI, Andrea 
Lander, Willem
LIBIN, Pieter 
ABRAMS, Steven 
COLETTI, Pietro 
FRANCO, Nicolas 
Verelst, Frederik
Beutels, Philippe
LIESENBORGS, Jori 
HENS, Niel 
Editors: Davenport, Miles P.
Issue Date: 2022
Publisher: PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
Source: PLoS Computational Biology, 18 (8) (Art N° e1009980)
Abstract: Superspreading events play an important role in the spread of several pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2. While the basic reproduction number of the original Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be about 3 for Belgium, there is substantial inter-individual variation in the number of secondary cases each infected individual causes-with most infectious individuals generating no or only a few secondary cases, while about 20% of infectious individuals is responsible for 80% of new infections. Multiple factors contribute to the occurrence of super-spreading events: heterogeneity in infectiousness, individual variations in susceptibility, differences in contact behavior, and the environment in which transmission takes place. While superspreading has been included in several infectious disease transmission models, research into the effects of different forms of superspreading on the spread of pathogens remains limited. To disentangle the effects of infectiousness-related heterogeneity on the one hand and contact-related heterogeneity on the other, we implemented both forms of superspreading in an individual-based model describing the transmission and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a synthetic Belgian population. We considered its impact on viral spread as well as on epidemic resurgence after a period of social distancing. We found that the effects of superspreading driven by heterogeneity in infectiousness are different from the effects of superspreading driven by heterogeneity in contact behavior. On the one hand, a higher level of infectiousness-related heterogeneity results in a lower risk of an outbreak persisting following the introduction of one infected individual into the population. Outbreaks that did persist led to fewer total cases and were slower, with a lower peak which occurred at a later point in time, and a lower herd immunity threshold. Finally, the risk of resurgence of an PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY PLOS Computational Biology | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.
Other: We used computational resources and services provided by the Flemish Supercomputer Centre (VSC), funded by the FWO and the Flemish Government.
Document URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/39577
Link to publication/dataset: https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009980
ISSN: 1553-734X
e-ISSN: 1553-7358
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009980
ISI #: 000933708400001
Datasets of the publication: 10.5281/zenodo.6669350.
Rights: 2022 Kuylen et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Appears in Collections:Research publications

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