How real are synthetic populations?

Abstract

Within the field of activity-based analysis and transportation research in general, there has been growing interest in the generation and use of synthetic populations over the years. Several disaggregate land use and activity-based travel models, which represent decisions and actions of individual persons and households, incorporate microsimulations. In these models, synthetic populations are initially created and the prediction of the outcomes for each unit of the population is done. The results are then aggregated to guide policy related analyses and decision making. The fundamental goal in the development of a population synthesizer is to synthesize the required population as accurately and precisely as possible, for as many variables as possible that are known to determine travel behavior.