Assessing the Impact of Fuel Cost on Traffic Demand in Flanders using Activity-Based Models

Abstract

The basic principle underlying activity-based travel demand models consists of the fact that travel is derived from the activities individuals need to perform. Important in the theoretical reasoning behind activity-based models are the constraints that dictate whether or not activities can be performed in particular time-space settings. In addition to constraints, empirical evidence also indicates that individuals’ activity-travel sequences are susceptible to changes in transport network characteristics, as they directly influence the individual perception with respect to different travel modes. By strategically managing the controllable properties of the transportation system, traffic demand can be influenced. However, the search for good traffic demand management measures is complicated by the abundance of available measures and their interactions. Activity-based models are conveniently suitable for incorporating these transport system characteristics in the decision process model yielding activity-travel schedules. Due to the consideration of transport system characteristics, activity-based models provide a tool to assess the impact of contemplated measures using simulation. In order to illustrate the potential of this approach towards traffic demand modeling, a simulation based analysis of the impact of fuel price on the traffic demand in Flanders is performed. To this end, an activity-based model in the FEATHERS (Forecasting Evolutionary Activity-Travel of Households and their Environmental RepercussionS) framework is applied on a fraction of the Flemish population.