Sensitivity of road safety outcomes to uncertainties in the computational model for assessing the impact of policy measures at the regonal level

Abstract

This research aims at evaluating the sensitivity of road safety outcomes to uncertainties in the computational model assessing the impact of road safety policy measures for the region of Flanders in Belgium. The model comprises five stages from which the main output is the number of saved injury accidents. Considering several possible uncertainties during the model process and using sensitivity indices, the most influential factors are identified. Future research is directed towards these factors as better knowledge of these factors will establish the largest reduction in the uncertainty of the number of saved injury accidents.