Een volatiele melkprijs: Het effect op het risicoprofiel van melkveebedrijven

Abstract

In this publication (in Dutch), we investigate the impact of the current higher milk price volatility on dairy farms' risk profile. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we calculate the risk profile of dairy farms under the stable milk price and under the volatile milk price situation. For the latter, we use different expected milk price scenarios. We see that under the scenario of increased volatility, dairy farms can achieve a better risk profile than under the stable milk price. This result is, however, to a great extent dependent on the assumptions for the future milk price. When an increase in milk price is assumed, risk profiles improve, while the opposite occurs with an equal of decreased expected milk price.