Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/13706
Title: Estimating the age-specific duration of herpes zoster vaccine protection: A matter of model choice?
Authors: Bilcke, Joke
OGUNJIMI, Benson 
Hulstaert, Frank
Van Damme, Pierre
HENS, Niel 
Beutels, Philippe
Issue Date: 2012
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Source: VACCINE, 30 (17), p. 2795-2800
Abstract: Introduction: The estimation of herpes zoster (HZ) vaccine efficacy by time since vaccination and age at vaccination is crucial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HZ vaccination. Published estimates for the duration of protection from the vaccine diverge substantially, although based on data from the same trial for a follow-up period of 5 years. Different models were used to obtain these estimates, but it is unclear which of these models is most appropriate (if any). Only one study estimated vaccine efficacy by age at vaccination and time since vaccination combined. Recently, data became available from the same trial for a follow-up period of 7 years. Aim and methods: We aim to elaborate on estimating HZ vaccine efficacy (1) by estimating it as a function of time since vaccination and age at vaccination, (2) by comparing the fits of a range of models. and (3) by fitting these models on data for a follow-up period of 5 and 7 years. Results: Although the models' fit to data are very comparable, they differ substantially in how they estimate vaccine efficacy to change as a function of time since vaccination and age at vaccination. Discussion: An accurate estimation of HZ vaccine efficacy by time since vaccination and age at vaccination is hampered by the lack of insight in the biological processes underlying HZ vaccine protection, and by the fact that such data are currently not available in sufficient detail. Uncertainty about the choice of model to estimate this important parameter should be acknowledged in cost-effectiveness analyses. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Notes: [Bilcke, Joke; Ogunjimi, Benson; Hens, Niel; Beutels, Philippe] Univ Antwerp, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst Vaxinfectio, Ctr Hlth Econ Res & Modeling Infect Dis CHERMID, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium. [Hulstaert, Frank] Adm Ctr Bot, Belgian Hlth Care Knowledge Ctr KCE, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium. [Van Damme, Pierre] Univ Antwerp, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst Vaxinfectio, Ctr Evaluat Vaccinat CEV, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium. [Hens, Niel] Hasselt Univ, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinforrnat BioSta, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium. joke.bilcke@ua.ac.be; benson.ogunjimi@ua.ac.be; Frank.Hulstaert@kce.fgov.be; pierre.vandamme@ua.ac.be; niel.hens@uhasselt.be; philippe.beutels@ua.ac.be
Keywords: Immunology; Research & Experimental Medicine; Zoster; Shingles; Waning; Model uncertainty;Zoster; Shingles; Waning; Model uncertainty
Document URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/13706
ISSN: 0264-410X
e-ISSN: 1873-2518
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.09.079
ISI #: 000303028600013
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Validations: ecoom 2013
Appears in Collections:Research publications

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