Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/14249
Title: Estimating the population prevalence and force of infection directly from antibody titres
Authors: Bollaerts, K.
AERTS, Marc 
SHKEDY, Ziv 
FAES, Christel 
Van der Stede, Y.
Beutels, P.
HENS, Niel 
Issue Date: 2012
Publisher: SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD
Source: STATISTICAL MODELLING, 12 (5), p. 441-462
Abstract: The use of threshold values in order to diagnose individual subjects as being 'susceptible' or 'infected or recovered/immune' for a specific infection is virtually always prone to false positive, false negative or inconclusive classifications. Such misclassifications might lead to biased estimates for epidemiological parameters, such as the prevalence and the force of infection. In this article, we propose to estimate these epidemiological parameters directly from antibody titres, using an underlying mixture model. The method is applied to estimate the Salmonella serological prevalence in pigs and the age-dependent force of infection using serological data on the Varicella-Zoster virus (VZV) in humans. The threshold and direct method are compared through a simulation study.
Notes: [Bollaerts, K.] Sci Inst Publ Hlth, Brussels, Belgium. [Aerts, M.; Shkedy, Z.; Faes, C.; Hens, N.] Hasselt Univ, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinformat, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium. [Aerts, M.; Shkedy, Z.; Faes, C.; Hens, N.] Katholieke Univ Leuven, Diepenbeek, Belgium. [Beutels, P.; Hens, N.] Univ Antwerp, Ctr Evaluat Vaccinat, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst, Ctr Hlth Econ Res & Modeling Infect Dis, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium. [Van der Stede, Y.] Vet & Agrochem Res Ctr, Brussels, Belgium.
Keywords: force of infection; mixture model; serological data; test misclassification; prevalence;Statistics & Probability; force of infection; mixture model; serological data; test misclassification, prevalence
Document URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/14249
ISSN: 1471-082X
e-ISSN: 1477-0342
DOI: 10.1177/1471082X12457495
ISI #: 000308652200003
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Validations: ecoom 2013
Appears in Collections:Research publications

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