Presentation and evaluation of an integrated model chain to respond to traffic- and health-related policy questions

Abstract

There is often a large discrepancy between the questions raised by policy makers and the responses offered by scientists. Current modeling approachesdo not answer some of the typical questions that decision-makers face, as they do not provide solutions to policy-makers dealing with concrete political negotiation and decisions. In this paper, we try to bridge the gap by creating an integrated model chain that can respond to such concrete policy questions. The paper describes a model chain consisting of an activity-based transport-model, a road traffic emission model, a bi-gaussian atmospheric dispersion model and a concentration measurement interpolation model. Subsequently results are compared to observations, in order to test its usability for simulating air quality and assessing dynamic exposure. The model is shown to represent the main cycles governing air quality, such as the intra-daily, the intra-weekly and the intra-annual cycle. Finally, this paper provides an example of the use of such a model chain by assessing the impact of different trip motives on the intra-daily NO2-cycle.