Modeling short-term dynamics in activity-travel patterns: from aurora to feathers

Abstract

Most operational models of activity-travel demand , including nested logit models (e.g., Vovsha et al.2004), Cemdap (Bhat et al. 2004), Famos (Pendyala et al.2005) and Albatross (Arentze and Timmermans 2000, 2005) have been developed to predict activity-travel patterns. The main contribution of these models is to offer an alternative to the four-step models of travel demand, better focusing on the consistency of the submodels and proving increased sensitivity to a wider range of policy issues. These models are most valuable for predicting the impact of land use and transportation policies on typical activity-travel patterns, allowing policy makers to assess the likely impact of such policies in terms of changing travel demand and a set of accessibility, mobility and environmental performance indicators.