Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/1942/15409
Title: | A simple periodic-forced model for dengue fitted to incidence data in Singapore | Authors: | Andraud, Mathieu HENS, Niel Beutels, Philippe |
Issue Date: | 2013 | Publisher: | ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC | Source: | MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES, 244 (1), p. 22-28 | Abstract: | Dengue is the world's major arbovirosis and therefore an important public health concern in endemic areas, The availability of weekly reports of dengue cases in Singapore offers the opportunity to analyze the transmission dynamics and the impact of vector control strategies. Based on a previous model studying the impact of vector control strategies in Singapore during the 2005 outbreak, a simple vector-host model accounting for seasonal fluctuation in vector density was developed to estimate the parameters governing the vector population dynamics using dengue fever incidence data from August 2003 to December 2007. The impact of vector control, which consisted principally of a systematic removal of actual and potential breeding sites during a six-week period in 2005, was also investigated. Although our approach does not account for the complex life cycle of the vector, the good fit between data and model outputs showed that the impact of seasonality on the transmission dynamics is highly important. Moreover, the periodic fluctuations of the vector population were found in phase with temperature variations, suggesting a strong climate effect on the vector density and, in turn, on the transmission dynamics. (c) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. | Notes: | Andraud, M (reprint author), Univ Antwerp, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst VAXINFECTIO, Ctr Hlth Econ Res & Modelling Infect Dis, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium. Hasselt Univ, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinformat, Diepenbeek, Belgium. Univ New S Wales, Sch Publ Hlth & Community Med, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia. mathieu.andraud@ua.ac.be | Keywords: | Arbovirus; Epidemiological model; Vector-host transmission; Vector-control; Model fit; Seasonality;Biology; Mathematical & Computational Biology | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/15409 | ISSN: | 0025-5564 | e-ISSN: | 1879-3134 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.mbs.2013.04.001 | ISI #: | 000320747800003 | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution | Validations: | ecoom 2014 |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
andraud 1.pdf Restricted Access | Published version | 671.88 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open Request a copy |
SCOPUSTM
Citations
17
checked on Sep 2, 2020
WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations
33
checked on Oct 12, 2024
Page view(s)
96
checked on Sep 7, 2022
Download(s)
82
checked on Sep 7, 2022
Google ScholarTM
Check
Altmetric
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.