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http://hdl.handle.net/1942/16079
Title: | A Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Model to Investigate the Effect of Cattle Movements on the Spread of Bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium | Authors: | ENSOY-MUSORO, Chellafe AERTS, Marc Welby, Sarah Van der Stede, Yves FAES, Christel |
Issue Date: | 2013 | Source: | PLOS ONE, 8 (11), (ART N° e78591) | Abstract: | When Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 (BTV-8) was first detected in Northern Europe in 2006, several guidelines were immediately put into place with the goal to protect farms and stop the spreading of the disease. This however did not prevent further rapid spread of BTV-8 across Northern Europe. Using information on the 2006 Bluetongue outbreak in cattle farms in Belgium, a spatio-temporal transmission model was formulated. The model quantifies the local transmission of the disease between farms within a municipality, the short-distance transmission between farms across neighbouring municipalities and the transmission as a result of cattle movement. Different municipality-level covariates such as farm density, land composition variables, temperature and precipitation, were assessed as possibly influencing each component of the transmission process. Results showed a significant influence of the different covariates in each model component, particularly the significant effect of temperature and precipitation values in the number of infected farms. The model which allowed us to predict the dynamic spreading of BTV for different movement restriction scenarios, also affirmed the significant impact of cattle movement in the 2006 BTV outbreak pattern. Simulation results further showed the importance of considering the size of restriction zones in the formulation of guidelines for animal infectious diseases. | Notes: | Ensoy, C (reprint author), Univ Hasselt, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinformat, Hasselt, Belgium. chellafe.ensoy@uhasselt.be | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/16079 | ISSN: | 1932-6203 | e-ISSN: | 1932-6203 | DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0078591 | ISI #: | 000327221600034 | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution | Validations: | ecoom 2014 |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
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ensoy 1.pdf | Published version | 1.97 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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