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Title: Assessing Mumps Outbreak Risk in Highly Vaccinated Populations Using Spatial Seroprevalence Data
Authors: Abrams, Steven 
Beutels, Philippe
HENS, Niel 
Issue Date: 2014
Source: AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, 179 (8), p. 1006-1017
Abstract: Mumps is a potentially severe viral infection. The incidence of mumps has declined dramatically in high-income countries since the introduction of mumps antigen-containing vaccines. However, recent large outbreaks of mumps in highly vaccinated populations suggest waning of vaccine-induced immunity and primary vaccine failure. In this paper we present a simple method for identifying geographic regions with high outbreak potential, demonstrated using 2006 mumps seroprevalence data from Belgium and Belgian vaccination coverage data. Predictions of the outbreak potential in terms of the effective reproduction number in future years signal an increased risk of new mumps outbreaks. Literature reviews on serological information for both primary vaccine failure and waning immunity provide essential information for our predictions. Tailor-made additional vaccination campaigns would be valuable for decreasing local pockets of susceptibility, thereby reducing the risk of future large-scale mumps outbreaks.
Keywords: disease outbreaks; effective reproduction number; mumps; next-generation operator; serology; social contact hypothesis; vaccination coverage; vaccines
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ISSN: 0002-9262
e-ISSN: 1476-6256
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwu014
ISI #: 000334075700009
Rights: © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail:
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Validations: ecoom 2015
Appears in Collections:Research publications

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