Geological uncertainty and investment risk in CO2-enhanced oil recovery

Abstract

CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) has the potential to combine the environmental benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction and the optimal use of natural resources. In economic simulations, CO2-EOR is generally approached in a classical way, with fixed parameters and limited flexibility. We propose a more realistic approach that combines realistic investment decision making with geological and techno-economic uncertainties. A cluster of seven active oil fields in the North Sea is simulated using a newly developed software tool, allowing to assess when EOR technology replaces primary production. CO2 can be delivered from different onshore locations via ship or pipeline. The introduction of near-realistic investment geological and economic risks in CO2-EOR projections will allow for in-depth assessment of CO2-EOR at the level of the North-Sea Basis, as well as of individual potential projects.