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http://hdl.handle.net/1942/19142
Title: | Integrating between-host transmission and within-host immunity to analyze the impact of varicella vaccination on zoster | Authors: | OGUNJIMI, Benson WILLEM, Lander Beutels, Philippe HENS, Niel |
Issue Date: | 2015 | Publisher: | ELIFE SCIENCES PUBLICATIONS LTD | Source: | ELIFE, 4, Art. N° e07116 | Abstract: | Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) causes chickenpox and reactivation of latent VZV causes herpes zoster (HZ). VZV reactivation is subject to the opposing mechanisms of declining and boosted VZV-specific cellular mediated immunity (CMI). A reduction in exogenous re-exposure 'opportunities' through universal chickenpox vaccination could therefore lead to an increase in HZ incidence. We present the first individual-based model that integrates within-host data on VZV-CMI and between-host transmission data to simulate HZ incidence. This model allows estimating currently unknown pivotal biomedical parameters, including the duration of exogenous boosting at 2 years, with a peak threefold to fourfold increase of VZV-CMI; the VZV weekly reactivation probability at 5% and VZV subclinical reactivation having no effect on VZV-CMI. A 100% effective chickenpox vaccine given to 1 year olds would cause a 1.75 times peak increase in HZ 31 years after implementation. This increase is predicted to occur mainly in younger age groups than is currently assumed. | Notes: | [Ogunjimi, Benson; Willem, Lander; Beutels, Philippe; Hens, Niel] Univ Antwerp, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst, Ctr Hlth Econ Res & Modeling Infect Dis, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium. [Ogunjimi, Benson; Willem, Lander; Beutels, Philippe; Hens, Niel] Hasselt Univ, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinformat, Hasselt, Belgium. [Willem, Lander] Univ Antwerp, Dept Math & Comp Sci, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium. [Beutels, Philippe] Univ New S Wales, Sch Publ Hlth & Community Med, Sydney, NSW, Australia. | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/19142 | ISSN: | 2050-084X | e-ISSN: | 2050-084X | DOI: | 10.7554/eLife.07116 | ISI #: | 000373850000001 | Rights: | Copyright Ogunjimi et al. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited. | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution | Validations: | ecoom 2017 |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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e07116.full.pdf | Published version | 3.33 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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