Do Western and Eastern Europe have the same Agricultural Climate Response?

Abstract

Climate change is differently affecting regional agricultural food productivity and farmers attempt to adapt to this. This study therefore examines whether climate change has a different impact on two neighboring European regions by looking at farmers’ actual and potential adaptive climate responses. It uses a comparative continental-scale cross-sectional approach and combines climate, soil, geographic, socio-economic, and FADN farm-level data in a linear mixed-effect model. The results show that when both regions rely independently on autonomous profit-maximizing farm behavior, this leads to a 51 to 59% loss in Eastern European land values. However, if Eastern Europe were to apply and implement the same adaptation options as Western Europe by 2100, it could avoid a large decrease in land value and even benefit from climate change, depending on the climate scenario. Consequently, the climate response of Western and Eastern Europe could be similar, on the condition that policy, society and behavior are devoted to bringing forth equal adjustment and adaptation conditions over both regions. In the interest of unlocking the potential of transition economies or developing regions for increased adaptive capacity, this paper’s insights suggest the necessity of testing farm systems in developing regions with reference to those of more developed regions with comparable climate variations.