Identification of the determinants of fare evasion

Abstract

Fare evasion occurs when passengers gain access to public transport by interacting with fare controls in manners that are inconsistent with tariff. Given the considerable economic impact of fare evasion, this study aims at identifying the factors that explain fare evasion. To investigate the socio-demographic correlates and motivations of fare evasion, a stated preference survey was conducted in Flanders, the northern part of Belgium. In total, the survey collected valuable information of 636 respondents. The result of two logistic regression models, i.e. a model predicting personal fare evasion, and a model predicting acquaintances' fare evasion, indicate that only a very limited number of factors help in profiling the typical fare evader. In terms of socio-demographics, age and gender are uncontested predictors for fare evasion: younger travellers and male travellers have the highest likelihood to evade fares. For public transport operators this implies that marketing campaigns against fare evasion should be especially tailored to this subgroup for maximal impact. Besides socio-demographics, perceptions of ticket prices and perceptions with respect to the control probability are directly impacting evasion rates. To further unravel the motivations of fare evasion a shift towards a more psychological approach or the use of qualitative techniques seems promising.