Exploring the future of carbon capture and utilisation by combining an international Delphi study with local scenario development

Abstract

This article identifies the factors that, according to international experts, will have substantial effects on thefuture development and commercialisation of carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) technologies. A two-roundonline Delphi study with 15 international experts in thefield of CCU enabled us to explore the main items withinfive impact categories: (1) benefits, (2) risks, (3) future developments, (4) demand, and (5) supply constraints.Based on the results of the Delphi study, we constructed 4 future scenarios that represent how the CCU sectorcould develop within 10 years, using a local scenario development workshop with 9 experts from within Flanders(Belgium) and the Netherlands. We used a deductive, explorative scenario development method, which resultedin a two-by-two scenario matrix. Wefind that the local experts consider the role of the government and thedevelopment of CCU costs to be the most uncertain factors and could have the highest impact on the devel-opment of the sector within the next 10 years. Our insights can be instructive for facilitating the process ofscenario planning for CCU development activities. Finally, although we work with a regionally specific casestudy, the same method could be implemented in other regions, using the generalfindings from our Delphi studyas a starting point for the scenario development.