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Title: | Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: A longitudinal study | Authors: | Fambiatos, Adam Jokubaitis, Vilija Horakova, Dana Havrdova, Eva Kubala Trojano, Maria Prat, Alexandre Girard, Marc Duquette, Pierre Lugaresi, Alessandra Izquierdo, Guillermo Grand'Maison, Francois Grammond, Pierre Sola, Patrizia Ferraro, Diana Alroughani, Raed Terzi, Murat Hupperts, Raymond Boz, Cavit Lechner-Scott, Jeannette Pucci, Eugenio Bergamaschi, Roberto Van Pesch, Vincent Ozakbas, Serkan Granella, Franco Turkoglu, Recai Iuliano, Gerardo Spitaleri, Daniele McCombe, Pamela Solaro, Claudio Slee, Mark Ampapa, Radek Soysal, Aysun Petersen, Thor Sanchez-Menoyo, Jose Luis Verheul, Freek Prevost, Julie Sidhom, Youssef VAN WIJMEERSCH, Bart Vucic, Steve Cristiano, Edgardo Saladino, Maria Laura Deri, Norma Barnett, Michael Olascoaga, Javier Moore, Fraser Skibina, Olga Gray, Orla Fragoso, Yara Yamout, Bassem Shaw, Cameron Singhal, Bhim Shuey, Neil Hodgkinson, Suzanne Altintas, Ayse Al-Harbi, Talal Csepany, Tunde Taylor, Bruce Hughes, Jordana Jun, Jae-Kwan van der Walt, Anneke Spelman, Tim Butzkueven, Helmut Kalincik, Tomas |
Issue Date: | 2020 | Publisher: | SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD | Source: | MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS JOURNAL, 26 (1), p. 79-90 | Abstract: | Background: The risk factors for conversion from relapsing-remitting to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis remain highly contested. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the demographic, clinical and paraclinical features that influence the risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Methods: Patients with adult-onset relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and at least four recorded disability scores were selected from MSBase, a global observational cohort. The risk of conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was evaluated at multiple time points per patient using multivariable marginal Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: A total of 15,717 patients were included in the primary analysis. Older age (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02, p < 0.001), longer disease duration (HR = 1.01, p = 0.038), a higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score (HR = 1.30, p < 0.001), more rapid disability trajectory (HR = 2.82, p < 0.001) and greater number of relapses in the previous year (HR = 1.07, p = 0.010) were independently associated with an increased risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Improving disability (HR = 0.62, p = 0.039) and disease-modifying therapy exposure (HR = 0.71, p = 0.007) were associated with a lower risk. Recent cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity, evidence of spinal cord lesions and oligoclonal bands in the cerebrospinal fluid were not associated with the risk of conversion. Conclusion: Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis increases with age, duration of illness and worsening disability and decreases with improving disability. Therapy may delay the onset of secondary progression. | Notes: | [Kalincik, Tomas] Royal Melbourne Hosp, Melbourne Brain Ctr, L4 Ctr, Grattan St, Parkville, Vic 3050, Australia. [Fambiatos, Adam; Hughes, Jordana; Jun, Jae-Kwan; Kalincik, Tomas] Univ Melbourne, Dept Med, CORe, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. [Jokubaitis, Vilija; van der Walt, Anneke] Monash Univ, Cent Clin Sch, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. [Jokubaitis, Vilija; Skibina, Olga; van der Walt, Anneke; Butzkueven, Helmut] The Alfred, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. [Horakova, Dana; Havrdova, Eva Kubala] Gen Univ Hosp, Dept Neurol, Prague, Czech Republic. [Horakova, Dana; Havrdova, Eva Kubala] Gen Univ Hosp, Ctr Clin Neurosci, Prague, Czech Republic. [Horakova, Dana; Havrdova, Eva Kubala] Charles Univ Prague, Prague, Czech Republic. [Trojano, Maria] Univ Bari, Dept Basic Med Sci Neurosci & Sense Organs, Bari, Italy. [Prat, Alexandre; Girard, Marc; Duquette, Pierre] Hop Notre Dame De Bon Secours, Montreal, PQ, Canada. [Prat, Alexandre; Girard, Marc; Duquette, Pierre] CHUM, Montreal, PQ, Canada. [Prat, Alexandre; Girard, Marc; Duquette, Pierre] Univ Montreal, Montreal, PQ, Canada. [Lugaresi, Alessandra] UOSI Riabilitaz Sclerosi Multipla, IRCCS Ist Sci Neurol Bologna, Bologna, Italy. [Lugaresi, Alessandra] Univ Bologna, Dipartimento Sci Biomed & Neuromotorie, Bologna, Italy. [Izquierdo, Guillermo] Hosp Univ Virgen Macarena, Seville, Spain. [Grand'Maison, Francois] Neuro Rive Sud, Greenfield Pk, PQ, Canada. [Grammond, Pierre] Ctr Hosp, CISSS Chaudiere Appalache, Levis, PQ, Canada. [Sola, Patrizia; Ferraro, Diana] Azienda Osped Univ, Dept Neurosci, Modena, Italy. [Alroughani, Raed] Amiri Hosp, Kuwait, Kuwait. [Terzi, Murat] Ondokuz Mayis Univ, Fac Med, Samsun, Turkey. [Hupperts, Raymond] Zuyderland Ziekenhuis, Sittard, Netherlands. [Boz, Cavit] Karadeniz Tech Univ, Farabi Hosp, TU Med Fac, Trabzon, Turkey. [Lechner-Scott, Jeannette] Univ Newcastle, Sch Med & Publ Hlth, Newcastle, NSW, Australia. [Lechner-Scott, Jeannette] John Hunter Hosp, Dept Neurol, Hunter New England Hlth, Newcastle, NSW, Australia. [Pucci, Eugenio] Azienda Sanitaria Unica Reg Marche, UOC Neurol, Macerata, Italy. [Bergamaschi, Roberto] IRCCS Mondino Fdn, Pavia, Italy. [Van Pesch, Vincent] Clin Univ St Luc, Brussels, Belgium. [Ozakbas, Serkan] Dokuz Eylul Univ, Izmir, Turkey. [Granella, Franco] Univ Parma, Dept Med & Surg, Parma, Italy. [Turkoglu, Recai] Haydarpasa Numune Training & Res Hosp, Istanbul, Turkey. [Iuliano, Gerardo] Ospedali Riuniti Salerno, Salerno, Italy. [Spitaleri, Daniele] Azienda Osped Rilievo Nazl, Avellino, Italy. [McCombe, Pamela] Univ Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, Australia. [McCombe, Pamela] Royal Brisbane & Womens Hosp, Herston, Qld, Australia. [Solaro, Claudio] Osped PA Micone, Genoa, Italy. [Slee, Mark] Flinders Univ S Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia. [Ampapa, Radek] Nemocnice Jihlava, Jihlava, Czech Republic. [Soysal, Aysun] Bakirkoy Educ & Res Hosp Psychiat & Neurol Dis, Istanbul, Turkey. [Petersen, Thor] Kommunehosp, Aarhus, Denmark. [Sanchez-Menoyo, Jose Luis] Hosp Galdakao Usansolo, Galdakao, Spain. [Verheul, Freek] Groene Hart Ziekenhuis, Gouda, Netherlands. [Prevost, Julie] CSSS St Jerome, St Jerome, PQ, Canada. [Sidhom, Youssef] Razi Hosp, Dept Neurol, Manouba, Tunisia. [Van Wijmeersch, Bart] Rehabil & MS Ctr Overpelt, Hasselt, Belgium. [Van Wijmeersch, Bart] Hasselt Univ, Hasselt, Belgium. [Vucic, Steve] Westmead Hosp, Sydney, NSW, Australia. [Cristiano, Edgardo] Hosp Italiano Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. [Saladino, Maria Laura] Inst Neurosci Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. [Deri, Norma] Hosp Fernandez, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. [Barnett, Michael] Brain & Mind Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia. [Olascoaga, Javier] Hosp Univ Donostia, Inst Invest Sanitaria Biodonostia, San Sebastian, Spain. [Moore, Fraser] Jewish Gen Hosp, Montreal, PQ, Canada. [Gray, Orla] South East Trust, Belfast, Antrim, North Ireland. [Fragoso, Yara] Univ Metropolitana Santos, Santos, Brazil. [Yamout, Bassem] Amer Univ Beirut, Med Ctr, Beirut, Lebanon. [Shaw, Cameron] Geelong Hosp, Geelong, Vic, Australia. [Singhal, Bhim] Bombay Hosp Inst Med Sci, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India. [Shuey, Neil] St Vincents Hosp, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. [Hodgkinson, Suzanne] Liverpool Hosp, Sydney, NSW, Australia. [Altintas, Ayse] Istanbul Univ, Cerrahpasa Med Sch, Istanbul, Turkey. [Al-Harbi, Talal] King Fahad Specialist Hosp Dammam, Dammam, Saudi Arabia. [Csepany, Tunde] Univ Debrecen, Fac Med, Dept Neurol, Debrecen, Hungary. [Taylor, Bruce] Royal Hobart Hosp, Hobart, Tas, Australia. [Spelman, Tim; Butzkueven, Helmut] Monash Univ, Cent Clin Sch, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. [Butzkueven, Helmut] Box Hill Hosp, Dept Neurol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. [Kalincik, Tomas] Royal Melbourne Hosp, Dept Neurol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. | Keywords: | SPMS;multiple sclerosis;disease modifying therapies;prediction;prognostics | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/29120 | ISSN: | 1352-4585 | e-ISSN: | 1477-0970 | DOI: | 10.1177/1352458519868990 | ISI #: | 000481049900001 | Rights: | The Author(s), 2019. Article reuse guidelines: sagepub.com/journalspermissions | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution | Validations: | ecoom 2020 |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
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