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http://hdl.handle.net/1942/30323
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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | BRUNS, Stephan | - |
dc.contributor.author | Csereklyei, Z | - |
dc.contributor.author | Stern, DI | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-01-16T08:12:48Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2020-01-16T08:12:48Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | - |
dc.date.submitted | 2020-01-13T15:20:35Z | - |
dc.identifier.citation | JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS, 214 (1) , p. 175 -197 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0304-4076 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/30323 | - |
dc.description.abstract | We model the role of the ocean in climate change, using the concept of multicointegration. Surface temperature and radiative forcing cointegrate and the accumulated cointegration disequilibria represent the change in Earth system heat content, which is predominantly stored in the ocean. System heat content in turn cointegrates with surface temperature. Using a multicointegrating 1(2) model, we find that the climate sensitivity is 2.8 degrees C and the rate of adjustment to equilibrium is realistically slow. These results contrast strongly with those from 1(1) cointegration models and are more consistent with global circulation models. We also estimate Earth system heat content as a latent variable for the full period, 1850-2014, and this predicted heat content cointegrates with available ocean heat content observations for 1940-2014. | - |
dc.language.iso | en | - |
dc.publisher | ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA | - |
dc.rights | (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. | - |
dc.subject.other | Time series | - |
dc.subject.other | Climate science | - |
dc.subject.other | Measurement error | - |
dc.subject.other | Polynomial cointegration | - |
dc.subject.other | Ocean heat content | - |
dc.title | A multicointegration model of global climate change | - |
dc.type | Journal Contribution | - |
dc.identifier.epage | 197 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 1 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | 175 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 214 | - |
local.bibliographicCitation.jcat | A1 | - |
local.publisher.place | PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND | - |
local.type.refereed | Refereed | - |
local.type.specified | Article | - |
dc.source.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.05.010 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000503084600010 | - |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1872-6895 | - |
local.provider.type | Web of Science | - |
local.uhasselt.uhpub | yes | - |
item.fullcitation | BRUNS, Stephan; Csereklyei, Z & Stern, DI (2020) A multicointegration model of global climate change. In: JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS, 214 (1) , p. 175 -197. | - |
item.validation | ecoom 2021 | - |
item.accessRights | Open Access | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
item.contributor | BRUNS, Stephan | - |
item.contributor | Csereklyei, Z | - |
item.contributor | Stern, DI | - |
crisitem.journal.issn | 0304-4076 | - |
crisitem.journal.eissn | 1872-6895 | - |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1012324591.pdf | Peer-reviewed author version | 1.17 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Bruns_Csereklyei_Stern_2020.pdf Restricted Access | Published version | 811.32 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open Request a copy |
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