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Title: | Clustering of susceptible individuals within households can drive measles outbreaks: an individual-based model exploration | Authors: | KUYLEN, Elise WILLEM, Lander Broeckhove, Jan Beutels, Philippe HENS, Niel |
Issue Date: | 2020 | Publisher: | NATURE RESEARCH | Source: | Scientific Reports, 10 (1) (Art N° 19645) | Abstract: | When estimating important measures such as the herd immunity threshold, and the corresponding efforts required to eliminate measles, it is often assumed that susceptible individuals are uniformly distributed throughout populations. However, unvaccinated individuals may be clustered in a variety of ways, including by geographic location, by age, in schools, or in households. Here, we investigate to which extent different levels of within-household clustering of susceptible individuals may impact the risk and persistence of measles outbreaks. To this end, we apply an individual-based model, Stride, to a population of 600,000 individuals, using data from Flanders, Belgium. We construct a metric to estimate the level of within-household susceptibility clustering in the population. Furthermore, we compare realistic scenarios regarding the distribution of susceptible individuals within households in terms of their impact on epidemiological measures for outbreak risk and persistence. We find that higher levels of within-household clustering of susceptible individuals increase the risk, size and persistence of measles outbreaks. Ignoring within-household clustering thus leads to underestimations of required measles elimination and outbreak mitigation efforts. | Notes: | Kuylen, E (corresponding author), Univ Antwerp, Ctr Hlth Econ Res & Modelling Infect Dis CHERMID, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst, Antwerp, Belgium.; Kuylen, E (corresponding author), Hasselt Univ, Data Sci Inst DSI, Hasselt, Belgium. elise.kuylen@uantwerpen.be |
Other: | Kuylen, E (corresponding author), Univ Antwerp, Ctr Hlth Econ Res & Modelling Infect Dis CHERMID, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst, Antwerp, Belgium ; Hasselt Univ, Data Sci Inst DSI, Hasselt, Belgium. elise.kuylen@uantwerpen.be | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/33085 | ISSN: | 2045-2322 | e-ISSN: | 2045-2322 | DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-020-76746-3 | ISI #: | WOS:000595255700038 | Rights: | The Author(s) 2020 Open Access Tis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. Te images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution | Validations: | ecoom 2021 |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
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s41598-020-76746-3.pdf | Published version | 1.18 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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