Evolution of cumulative live birth and dropout rates over six complete IVF/ICSI cycles: a large prospective cohort study

Abstract

Research question: How do cumulative live birth rates (CLBR), cumulative multiple live birth rates (CMLBR) and dropout rates over six IVF and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles change over time? Design: Prospective longitudinal cohort (n = 16,073 patients; 48,946 cycles) starting a first fresh assisted reproductive technology cycle between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2016, with follow-up until 31 December 2017 Outcomes between the periods 2014-2017 and 2009-2012 were compared. Results: Conservative estimates of CLBR after six complete cycles were significantly higher in women younger than 35 years after every cycle: one to three, adjusted P-value [p adj] < 0.0001; four, p = 0.01; five, p adj = 0.03; six, p adj = 0.04) and after the first cycle in women aged 35-37 years (p adj = 0.04) in 2014-2017 versus 2009-2012. For an optimal estimate, the CLBR was significantly higher after the first three cycles in women younger than 35 years (all p adj < 0.0001) and after the first cycle in women aged 35-37 years (p adj = 0.04). The CMLBR rate decreased from 5.1% 0.19 (SE) to 4.1% 0.16 for the conservative estimate and from 8.6% 0.37 (SE) to 6.7% 0.30 for the optimal estimate after six complete cycles for the whole cohort. Dropout rates of complete cycles were 26.5% 29.4%, 33.4%, 38.9% and 473% after the first to fifth cycle, respectively. Compared with 2009-2012, the dropout rate in the current period was significantly higher for the first (P < 0.0001) and second (P = 0.0124) cycle. Conclusion: Over six complete IVF/ICSI cycles, CLBR and dropout rates increased and multiple live birth rates decreased when 2014-2017 was compared with 2009-2012.