Urban Transition as a Result of Transport Investment: The Case Bus Rapid Transit Lahore Pakistan

Abstract

The rapid population growth and urbanization have escalated the need for diverse modes of transport around the world. Moreover, the pressure in densely populated urban areas has compelled people to live on fringes of the city. As a consequence, this spread of population along the urban peripheries has amplified the need for mobility, making most people use private cars to satisfy their mobility needs. Numerous problems have emerged with this upsurge of automobiles including environmental degradation, increased energy consumption, congestion, increased road accidents, travel delays, noise, and air pollution. Therefore, governments are spending huge amounts of their resources to encourage users to shift towards more sustainable and green modes of transport. BRT has gained popularity around the world, especially in developing countries because of its cost-effectiveness in contrast to expensive rail and LRT systems. As developing countries having inadequate capital resources; envisaging its benefits, BRT has become increasingly appealing for government investment. However, the majority of the BRT systems are relatively new, therefore, empirical evidence to assert their impacts on urban development, travel behavior, and economy is insufficient. Little research is apparent from the perspective of benefits associated with BRT development, especially on the following three important aspects. Firstly, inadequate research on BRT from the perspective of the user is evident. This is problematic because social benefits provided by the BRT serve as the utmost justification for government investment. Secondly, public transport investment is generally perceived by planners as a pure and exclusively mobility investment strategy while city-shaping impacts of BRT are mostly being ignored. Thirdly, access benefits underlined in wake of transit investment are capitalized into higher land values, and it becomes essential to quantify the land/ property value effect of transport investment. Moreover, achieving sustainable cities, sustainable transport, and decent economic growth are major sustainable development goals (SDGs) delineated by the United Nations. Therefore, to enhance our knowledge, this dissertation examines the external benefits of BRT and attempts to quantify the travel behavior, urban development, and economic impacts that emerged after the implementation of BRT. This study focuses on the case of BRT in Lahore, Pakistan. Nevertheless this research could serve as a representative for developing countries and more specifically for those of South-Asia. Since the association between BRT and land use complex, therefore, this research utilizes a more sophisticated approach i.e. actor relational approach to ascertain the constitution of different sub-systems (e.g. transport, urban development, and economy) akeholders helped to determine the factors that instigate these transformations and changes in the role and responsibilities of dominant stakeholders and the government. The analysis of travel behavior indicated that BRT-Lahore has substantial impacts on the behavior of travelers. Besides a modal shift, BRT has also improved the choices for more environmentally friendly modes of transport, like walking. It is revealed that travelers’ characteristics such as age, gender, occupation, education, income, travel purpose, vehicle ownership significantly influences the mode shift to BRT. The analysis of service-related attributes of BRT (e.g. time, costs, safety, reliability, comfort, integration) indicates that travel time, travel cost, and safety are the most important factors to influence the choice for BRT. Performance analysis delineated that a substantial difference was observed for the mean change in travel time between BRT and other modes. BRT users have less travel time compared to using a car, motorcycle, rickshaw, or other modes of transport. Also, a difference in mean change in travel cost was observed between BRT and car users. BRT is a preferred mobility alternative in Lahore because it is cheaper, faster, and safer compared to other modes of transport. Moreover, BRT in Lahore has substantially influenced the travel pattern of people. The empirical investigation exploring urban development patterns in Lahore indicated that BRT, Lahore has the potential to stimulate land-use transformation. However, the extent of transformation is context-dependent. All the assessed BRT stations have shown an increase in commercial activities due to land-use conversion. The results indicate that all the areas have gone through land-use transformation, however, the extent of transition varies across the entire corridor. Change in population and building density is also evident in the study area. Population density has increased from 268 persons/acre to 299 persons/acre. An increase in building density for residential and commercial uses is observed majorly for all stations. In comparison to general development patterns in Lahore, areas around BRT have become increasingly appealing for residential and commercial activities. Thus, the observed land-use transformations and new activities indicate that BRT in Lahore is somehow successful in encouraging land-use transformation in its vicinity and that these benefits can be catered efficiently for the creation of a compact urban neighborhood. The economic impacts of BRT being investigated in this dissertation mainly cover its impacts on property values, inward investment, and extension of the labor market. The hedonic pricing model (HPM) and GWR model is developed to investigate the relationship between property values and various independent variables (e.g. property attributes, neighborhood attributes, and accessibility). The hedonic model, as a global model, provides the average impacts of independent variables on property value, whereas GWR as a local model provides the opportunity to explore and map the local variations in property value premium. The results of the HPM indicate that the physical characteristics of the property like building age and number of bedrooms are significantly associated with an increase in property value. The width of the road as a neighborhood attribute is also associated with a higher premium; whereas, from accessibility attributes, only proximity to BRT station is significantly linked to the higher premium of the property. The mapping of local parameters shows a significant association between property value and proximity to the BRT station over the entire length of the BRT corridor. However, properties located in the north within 500 meters of Shahdara, Timber Market, and Qartaba chowk station gained a higher premium compared to properties located around other BRT stations. Probably the influence of downtown Lahore also applies here. But for the entire corridor, in general, a decline in the distance to the BRT station is associated with an increase in property value. Nevertheless, the value of premium varies over the entire BRT corridor. The evidence from BRT-Lahore concerning inward investment indicated that an increase in economic activities is also witnessed along the corridor. Almost 22,000 million rupees (US $140 million) inward investment is detected after the implementation of BRT, which ultimately brought around 800 new employees. Thus, indicating that BRT, Lahore has significantly impacted its neighboring areas in terms of urban development, travel behavior, and economy. Besides providing mobility benefits, BRT until now is successful in generating land development and economic activities. The analysis of the interrelationship between different impacts of BRT shows that this relationship between urban development, transportation, and economic development is continuous as they work in both directions. The development of any transportation system influences different aspects of urban and economic development. Similarly, urban development and economic factors also influence travel patterns and thus transport. In the future, when there would be more high-rise development along BRT, this will ultimately induce new demands for transport that would lead to an upgrade of the BRT services. This interrelation between urban development, transport, and economy can be explained through the actor relational approach (ARA). According to this approach, the interrelation between different human and non-human actors in a specific dynamic setting affects the conscious actors and locatable dynamic settings which further drives change. Hence, agencies and institutions co-evolve and they can drive towards a constant state of becoming and therewith towards a condition of innovation. Nevertheless, the analysis of stakeholder’s roles and responsibilities determines that there has not been much change after the BRT implementation. To handle the BRT operation and maintenance matters in and around Lahore, a new organization named Punjab Mass-transit Authority (PMA) has been established. The foundation of PMA has changed the role and responsibilities of few transport-related organizations, including the Lahore Transport Company (LTC) and the Traffic Engineering and Planning Agency (TEPA). However, no special policy measures were introduced to encourage transit-oriented development along the BRT corridor and the question of integrating land-use and transport development in the context of BRT remains the same. Although new building and zoning regulations are approved in 2020, it is too early to assess their impact in stimulating urban development in Lahore. But, in the new regulations, all the areas are opened for high-rise development. Futhermore, it was not focused to upgrade the infrastructure services and more focus is needed here. Given the limited financial resources, it is difficult to cater to the infrastructure requirements. Considering the current circumstance and financial constraints there is a need to focus on and utilize specific areas around transit corridors (e.g. those to BRT and Orange line) as a focal point for high-rise and high-density-based development. Finally, a number of recommendations have been formulated in the framework to encourage transit-oriented development (TOD) in Lahore. Several departments/agencies are working for transport and land use development with overlapping jurisdiction. There exists poor coordination between these actors (actors related to transport and land use) which often results in negative spillovers and inefficiencies. First of all, there is a need to revamp the role of development and transport authority in the context of TOD. In the present fragment structure where responsibilities are distributed between various actors, one authority should take a leading role in integrating land-use and transport investment. In Lahore, urban development activities are mainly supervised by either the Lahore development authority (LDA) or municipal administration and in view of transport agencies such as Lahore Transport Company (LTC), Punjab Masstranist Authority (PMA), and Traffic Engineering and Transport Planning Agency (TEPA), the LDA should take the lead role in the planning and execution of the TOD plan. Strong political support to execute this TOD plan could play an important role in this regard. A transit-oriented plan can work on a mechanism of control and incentives and should be supplemented by a redevelopment plan, especially focusing on outdated areas. We recommend amendments in zoning regulation for integrated urban development. Building and zoning regulations should be amended to encourage high-rise development. Higher density can accommodate new dwellings, which would help to counter urban sprawl in Lahore. Mobility nodes (i.e., BRT stations) can be promoted as places for higher rise development and density tapering as moving away from BRT. Higher density can be promoted by introducing tax exemption schemes and assisting land assembly requirements in the central areas. Policies encouraging land assembly could help in generating new development opportunities and a window for public-private partnerships. Nevertheless, besides density bonuses, local development authorities need to upgrade supportive infrastructure. In order to enhance the use of BRT in Lahore, it is recommended to ensure good accessibility to the BRT stations and to enrich the urban landscape by improving streetscape and sidewalks. The integration of BRT with other modes of transport is another important aspect, especially when non-motorized modes like walking and cycling are concerned. In Lahore, walking as a mode of transport has increased after the development of BRT. A good network of sidewalks and attractive streetscapes would help to achieve the objective of a walkable city and could increase multi-mode travel. Special attention should be given to design multiple urban spaces around the TOD. Policy measures, like restrictions on private vehicle use or congestion charging in the central area of the city, can induce a modal shift to BRT. Though this is not an easy task, encouraging public participation can help to achieve the goal of more sustainable transportation. Last but not the least, removing financial obstacles is another element of great importance when implementing TOD plans. First, public-private partnerships during land assembly can help to generate additional resources. Secondly, land value capture policy in the future could be utilized for this purpose. The findings of this study can be considered before implementing other transit systems in Lahore that are delineated in the Lahore Urban Transport Master Plan. Several barriers need to be dealt with if future BRT/transit investments are to successfully shape the urban environment in developing countries around the world. Integration between transport investment and land-use policies can play a decisive role in realizing compact and sustainable neighborhoods. Although this research is situational, the general recommendations from this could be a useful tool for the planning of BRT systems in other Southeast Asian cities.