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Title: | The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19 | Authors: | WILLEM, Lander ABRAMS, Steven LIBIN, Pieter Beutels, Philippe COLETTI, Pietro KUYLEN, Elise PETROF, Oana MOGELMOSE, Signe WAMBUA, James HERZOG, Sereina FAES, Christel HENS, Niel |
Issue Date: | 2021 | Publisher: | NATURE RESEARCH | Source: | Nature Communications, 12 (1) (Art N° 1524) | Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., "household bubbles". The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital admissions by 90%. In addition, we find that it is crucial to complete contact tracing 4 days after symptom onset. Assumptions on the susceptibility of children affect the impact of school reopening, though we find that business and leisure-related social mixing patterns have more impact on COVID-19 associated disease burden. An optimal deployment of the mitigation policies under study require timely compliance to physical distancing, testing and self-isolation. The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., "household bubbles". The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital admissions by 90%. In addition, we find that it is crucial to complete contact tracing 4 days after symptom onset. Assumptions on the susceptibility of children affect the impact of school reopening, though we find that business and leisure-related social mixing patterns have more impact on COVID-19 associated disease burden. An optimal deployment of the mitigation policies under study require timely compliance to physical distancing, testing and self-isolation. The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. Here, the authors implement an age-specific, individual-based model with data on social contacts for the Belgian population and investigate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions. |
Keywords: | Adolescent;Adult;Aged;Aged, 80 and over;Belgium;COVID-19;Child;Child, Preschool;Communicable Disease Control;Disease Transmission, Infectious;Health Policy;Hospitalization;Humans;Infant;Infant, Newborn;Middle Aged;Models, Theoretical;Pandemics;SARS-CoV-2;Schools;Young Adult;Contact Tracing;Family Characteristics;Quarantine | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/34340 | e-ISSN: | 2041-1723 | DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-021-21747-7 | ISI #: | WOS:000627829600010 | Rights: | Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/. | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution | Validations: | ecoom 2022 |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
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s41467-021-21747-7.pdf | Published version | 8.47 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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