Shrinkage in Growth: A concept for spatial planning

Abstract

In spatial planning, contexts with demographic growth and demographic shrinkage are often seen as two different paradigms. In reality, however, both phenomena coexist. Whereas growth is often projected as a preferable scenario, also shrinkage has advantages. Therefore, it is in the advantage of spatial planning to learn how to deal with both phenomena at the same time. This thesis focusses on the concept of shrinkage in growth based on the case of the growing region of Flanders. Its main goal is to support spatial planning to deliberately experiment with the concept of shrinkage in a context of growth. Different manifestations of shrinkage within the case region are investigated and a conceptual framework revealing the presence of shrinkage within spatial practice is tested. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains a theoretical approach to the concept of shrinkage in growth in three journal articles (Chapter 1-3). The second part is a selection of independent experiments to explore the subject more freely. (Exploration 1-6). Because shrinkage has many definitions, the theoretical approach investigates in first instance a conceptualization through the use of different parameters that can direct the implementation of shrinkage in growth (Chapter 1-2). Demographic data and a model for the risk of shrinkage are linked to a systemic understanding of space. This conceptualization is then used as one of the conceptual frameworks to be able to compare an implementation of shrinkage in ongoing trajectories and advance the implementation based on existing practice (Chapter 3). During the research different explorations into the theme of ‘shrinkage in growth’ took place with independent outcomes. Three explorations experiment with our role as architects and designers, respectively a mind map, a lecture evening for and by creative practices and a context exploration of a village (Exploration 1-3). At the end of the research three more explorations aim at operationalizing our findings of Part 1 by means of an opinion piece for local public press, a lecture for spatial planners and a design studio assignment for architecture students (Exploration 4-6). The thesis concludes on the concept of ‘shrinkage in growth’ that is derived from a demographic and systemic interpretation of shrinkage in the case region and suggests further research. The concept embodies both existing and potential demographic shrinkage on the short, medium, and long-term and on different spatial scales within an overall context of growth. Its opportunities exist from the parcel level, and its negative impact can manifest itself from the neighborhood scale. An implementation of shrinkage in growth, thus requires a spatial planning with different spatial scales and on different timeframes. It is a matter of an active attitude and keeping the overview to balance the positive and the negative aspects.