Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/34708
Title: Comparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon)
Authors: HENDRICKX, Diana 
Sousa, Joao Dinis
LIBIN, Pieter 
DELVA, Wim 
LIESENBORGS, Jori 
HENS, Niel 
Mueller, Viktor
Vandamme, Anne-Mieke
Issue Date: 2021
Publisher: NATURE RESEARCH
Source: Scientifc Reports (2021) 11 (1) Art. N° 14696
Abstract: Model comparisons have been widely used to guide intervention strategies to control infectious diseases. Agreement between different models is crucial for providing robust evidence for policy-makers because differences in model properties can influence their predictions. In this study, we compared models implemented by two individual-based model simulators for HIV epidemiology in a heterosexual population with Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2). For each model simulator, we constructed four models, starting from a simplified basic model and stepwise including more model complexity. For the resulting eight models, the predictions of the impact of behavioural interventions on the HIV epidemic in Yaounde-Cameroon were compared. The results show that differences in model assumptions and model complexity can influence the size of the predicted impact of the intervention, as well as the predicted qualitative behaviour of the HIV epidemic after the intervention. These differences in predictions of an intervention were also observed for two models that agreed in their predictions of the HIV epidemic in the absence of that intervention. Without additional data, it is impossible to determine which of these two models is the most reliable. These findings highlight the importance of making more data available for the calibration and validation of epidemiological models.
Notes: Hendrickx, DM (corresponding author), Hasselt Univ, Data Sci Inst, I BioStat, Hasselt, Belgium.
diana.hendrickx@uhasselt.be
Document URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/34708
ISSN: 2045-2322
e-ISSN: 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-94289-z
ISI #: WOS:000675840600010
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Validations: ecoom 2022
Appears in Collections:Research publications

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