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http://hdl.handle.net/1942/34831
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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | FRANCO, Nicolas | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-09-09T09:39:02Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2021-09-09T09:39:02Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2021 | - |
dc.date.submitted | 2021-09-03T14:21:48Z | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Epidemics (Print), 37 (Art N° 100490) | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1755-4365 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/34831 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Following the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and pending the establishment of vaccination campaigns, several non pharmaceutical interventions such as partial and full lockdown, quarantine and measures of physical distancing have been imposed in order to reduce the spread of the disease and to lift the pressure on healthcare system. Mathematical models are important tools for estimating the impact of these interventions, for monitoring the current evolution of the epidemic at a national level and for estimating the potential long-term consequences of relaxation of measures. In this paper, we model the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in Belgium with a deterministic age-structured extended compartmental model. Our model takes special consideration for nursing homes which are modelled as separate entities from the general population in order to capture the specific delay and dynamics within these entities. The model integrates social contact data and is fitted on hospitalisations data (admission and discharge), on the daily number of COVID-19 deaths (with a distinction between general population and nursing home related deaths) and results from serological studies, with a sensitivity analysis based on a Bayesian approach. We present the situation as in November 2020 with the estimation of some characteristics of the COVID-19 deduced from the model. We also present several mid-term and long-term projections based on scenarios of reinforcement or relaxation of social contacts for different general sectors, with a lot of uncertainties remaining. | - |
dc.description.sponsorship | The author wants to acknowledge the different members of the Walloon consortium on mathematical model of the COVID-19 epidemic for the numerous discussions, especially Sebastien Clesse, Annick Sartenaer, Alexandre Mauroy, Timoteo Carletti as well as Germain van Bever for statistical discussions. The author wants also to acknowledge the members of the Flemish consortium for the very useful exchanges, models’ comparisons and helps on improvement, especially the members of the SIMID-COVID-19 consortium (UHasselt-UAntwerp) and the BIOMATH team (UGent). This work was supported by the Namur Institute for Complex Systems (naXys) and the Department of Mathematics of the University of Namur, Belgium. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Computational resources have been provided by the Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif (CÉCI), funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.-FNRS) under Grant No. 2.5020.11 and by the Walloon Region. | - |
dc.language.iso | en | - |
dc.publisher | ELSEVIER | - |
dc.rights | 2021 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license | - |
dc.subject.other | SARS-CoV-2 | - |
dc.subject.other | Age-structured compartmental SEIR model | - |
dc.subject.other | Hospitalisation and mortality data | - |
dc.subject.other | Social contact patterns | - |
dc.subject.other | Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) | - |
dc.title | COVID-19 Belgium: Extended SEIR-QD model with nursing homes and long-term scenarios-based forecasts | - |
dc.type | Journal Contribution | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 37 | - |
local.format.pages | 12 | - |
local.bibliographicCitation.jcat | A1 | - |
local.publisher.place | RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS | - |
local.type.refereed | Refereed | - |
local.type.specified | Article | - |
local.bibliographicCitation.artnr | 100490 | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100490 | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 34482186 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | 000703684000001 | - |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1878-0067 | - |
local.provider.type | CrossRef | - |
local.uhasselt.uhpub | yes | - |
local.uhasselt.international | no | - |
item.validation | ecoom 2022 | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
item.accessRights | Open Access | - |
item.fullcitation | FRANCO, Nicolas (2021) COVID-19 Belgium: Extended SEIR-QD model with nursing homes and long-term scenarios-based forecasts. In: Epidemics (Print), 37 (Art N° 100490). | - |
item.contributor | FRANCO, Nicolas | - |
crisitem.journal.issn | 1755-4365 | - |
crisitem.journal.eissn | 1878-0067 | - |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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1-s2.0-S1755436521000414-main.pdf | Published version | 12.94 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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