Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/37275
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dc.contributor.authorNGUYEN, Minh Hanh-
dc.contributor.authorBRAEYE, Toon-
dc.contributor.authorHENS, Niel-
dc.contributor.authorFAES, Christel-
dc.date.accessioned2022-05-06T14:52:36Z-
dc.date.available2022-05-06T14:52:36Z-
dc.date.issued2021-
dc.date.submitted2022-04-11T13:15:25Z-
dc.identifier.citationEpidemiology and Infection, 150 (Art N° e12)-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1942/37275-
dc.description.abstractPhenomenological models are popular for describing the epidemic curve. We present how they can be used at different phases in the epidemic, by modelling the daily number of new hospitalisations (or cases). As real-time prediction of the hospital capacity is important, a joint model of the new hospitalisations, number of patients in hospital and in intensive care unit (ICU) is proposed. This model allows estimation of the length of stay in hospital and ICU, even if no (or limited) individual level information on length of stay is available. Estimation is done in a Bayesian framework. In this framework, real-time alarms, defined as the probability of exceeding hospital capacity, can be easily derived. The methods are illustrated using data from the COVID-19 pandemic in March-June 2020 in Belgium, but are widely applicable.-
dc.language.isoen-
dc.publisherCAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS-
dc.rightsThe Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.-
dc.subject.otherCOVID-19-
dc.subject.othermodelling-
dc.subject.otherpublic health emerging infections-
dc.subject.otherstatistics-
dc.titleMultivariate phenomenological models for real-time short-term forecasts of hospital capacity for COVID-19 in Belgium from March to June 2020-
dc.typeJournal Contribution-
dc.identifier.volume150-
local.format.pages13-
local.bibliographicCitation.jcatA1-
local.publisher.place32 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10013-2473 USA-
local.type.refereedRefereed-
local.type.specifiedArticle-
local.bibliographicCitation.artnre12-
dc.identifier.doi10.1017/S0950268821002491-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000740743100001-
local.provider.typeWeb of Science-
local.uhasselt.internationalno-
item.validationecoom 2023-
item.contributorNGUYEN, Minh Hanh-
item.contributorBRAEYE, Toon-
item.contributorHENS, Niel-
item.contributorFAES, Christel-
item.fullcitationNGUYEN, Minh Hanh; BRAEYE, Toon; HENS, Niel & FAES, Christel (2021) Multivariate phenomenological models for real-time short-term forecasts of hospital capacity for COVID-19 in Belgium from March to June 2020. In: Epidemiology and Infection, 150 (Art N° e12).-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
item.accessRightsOpen Access-
crisitem.journal.issn0950-2688-
crisitem.journal.eissn1469-4409-
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