Title: | Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study |
Authors: | Blach, Sarah Terrault, Norah A. Tacke, Frank Gamkrelidze, Ivane Craxi, Antonio Tanaka, Junko Waked, Imam Dore, Gregory J. Abbas, Zaigham Abdallah, Ayat R. Abdulla, Maheeba Aghemo, Alessio Aho, Inka Akarca, Ulus S. Alalwan, Abduljaleel M. Blome, Marianne Alanko Al-Busafi, Said A. Aleman, Soo Alghamdi, Abdullah S. Al-Hamoudi, Waleed K. Aljumah, Abdulrahman A. Al-Naamani, Khalid Al Serkal, Yousif M. Altraif, Ibrahim H. Anand, Anil C. Anderson, Motswedi Andersson, Monique, I Athanasakis, Kostas Baatarkhuu, Oidov Bakieva, Shokhista R. Ben-Ari, Ziv Bessone, Fernando Biondi, Mia J. Bizri, Abdul Rahman N. Mello, Carlos E. Brandaoo Brigida, Krestina Brown, Kimberly A. Brown, Robert S., Jr. Bruggmann, Philip Brunetto, Maurizia R. BUSSCHOTS, Dana Buti, Maria Butsashvili, Maia Cabezas, Joaquin Chae, Chungman Ivanova, Viktorija Chaloska Chan, Henry Lik Yuen Cheinquer, Hugo Cheng, Kent Jason Cheon, Myeong Eun Chien, Cheng Hung Chien, Rong Nan Choudhuri, Gourdas Christensen, Peer Brehm Chuang, Wan Long Chulanov, Vladimir Cisneros, Laura E. Coco, Barbara Contreras, Fernando A. Cornberg, Markus Cramp, Matthew E. Crespo, Javier Cui, Fuqiang Cunningham, Chris W. Abou, Lucy Dagher Dalgard, Olav Dao, Doan Y. De Ledinghen, Victor Derbala, Moutaz F. Deuba, Keshab Dhindsa, Karan Djauzi, Samsuridjal Drazilova, Sylvia Duberg, Ann Sofi Elbadri, Mohammed El-Sayed, Manal H. Esmat, Gamal Estes, Chris Ezzat, Sameera Farkkila, Martti A. Ferradini, Laurent Ferraz, Maria Lucia G. Ferreira, Paulo R. Abrao Kanizaj, Tajana Filipec Flisiak, Robert Frankova, Sona Fung, James Gamkrelidze, Amiran Gane, Edward J. Garcia, Virginia Garcia-Samaniego, Javier Gemilyan, Manik Genov, Jordan Gheorghe, Liliana S. Gholam, Pierre M. Null, Adrian Goldis Gottfredsson, Magnus Gray, Richard T. Grebely, Jason Gschwantler, Michael Hajarizadeh, Behzad Hamid, Saeed S. Hamoudi, Waseem Hatzakis, Angelos Hellard, Margaret E. Himatt, Sayed Hofer, Harald Hrstic, Irena Hunyady, Bela Husa, Petr Husic-Selimovic, Azra Jafri, Wasim S. M. Janicko, Martin Janjua, Naveed Z. Jarcuska, Peter Jaroszewicz, Jerzy Jerkeman, Anna Jeruma, Agita Jia , Jidong Jonasson, Jon G. Kaberg, Martin Kaita, Kelly D. E. Null, Kulpash S. Kaliaskarova Kao, Jia Horng Kasymov, Omor T. Hanku, Angela Kelly Khamis, Faryal Khamis, Jawad Khan, Aamir G. Khandu, Lekey Khoudri, Ibtissam Kielland, Knut B. Kim, Do Young Kodjoh, Nicolas Kondili, Loreta A. Krajden, Mel Krarup, Henrik Bygum Kristian, Pavol Kwon, Jisoo A. Lagging, Martin Laleman, Wim Lao, Wai Cheung Lavanchy, Daniel Lazaro, Pablo Lazarus, Jeffrey, V Lee, Alice U. Lee, Mei Hsuan Li, Michael K. K. Liakina, Valentina Lim, Young Suk Love, Arthur Luksic, Boris Machekera, Shepherd Mufudzi Malu, Abraham O. Marinho, Rui T. Maticic, Mojca Mekonnen, Hailemichael D. Mendes-Correa, Maria Cassia Mendez-Sanchez, Nahum Merat, Shahin Meshesha, Berhane Redae Midgard, Havard Mills, Mike Mohamed, Rosmawati Mooneyhan, Ellen Moreno, Christophe Muljono, David H. Mullhaupt, Beat Musabaev, Erkin Muyldermans, Gaetan Nartey, Yvonne Ayerki Naveira, Marcelo C. M. Negro, Francesco Nersesov, Alexander, V Njouom, Richard Ntagirabiri, Renovat Nurmatov, Zuridin S. Obekpa, Solomon A. Oguche, Stephen Olafsson, Sigurdur Ong, Janus P. Opare-Sem, Ohene K. Orrego, Mauricio Ovrehus, Anne L. Pan, Calvin Q. Papatheodoridis, George, V Peck-Radosavljevic, Markus Pessoa, Mario G. Phillips, Richard O. Pimenov, Nikolay Plaseska-Karanfilska, Dijana Prabdial-Sing, Nishi N. Puri, Pankaj Null, Huma Qureshi Rahman, Aninda Ramji, Alnoor Razavi-Shearer, Devin M. Razavi-Shearer, Kathryn Ridruejo, Ezequiel Rios-Hincapie, Cielo Y. Rizvi, S. M. Shahriar ROBAEYS, Geert Roberts, Lewis R. Roberts, Stuart K. Ryder, Stephen D. Sadirova, Shakhlo Saeed, Umar Safadi, Rifaat Sagalova, Olga Said, Sanaa S. Salupere, Riina Sanai, Faisal M. Sanchez-Avila, Juan F. Saraswat, Vivek A. Sarrazin, Christoph Sarybayeva, Gulya Seguin-Devaux, Carole Sharara, Ala, I Sheikh, Mahdi Shewaye, Abate B. Sievert, William Simojoki, Kaarlo Simonova, Marieta Y. Sonderup, Mark W. Spearman, C. Wendy Sperl, Jan Stauber, Rudolf E. Stedman, Catherine A. M. Su, Tung Hung Suleiman, Anita Sypsa, Vana Antabak, Natalia Tamayo Tan, Soek Siam Tergast, Tammo L. Thurairajah, Prem H. Tolmane, Ieva Tomasiewicz, Krzysztof Tsereteli, Maia Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. C. Van de Vijver, David A. M. C. van Santen, Daniela K. Van Vlierberghe, Hans Van Welzen, Berend Vanwolleghem, Thomas Velez-Moller, Patricia Villamil, Federico Guillermo Vince, Adriana Waheed, Yasir Weis, Nina Wong, Vincent W. S. Yaghi, Cesar G. Yesmembetov, Kakharman Yosry, Ayman Yuen, Man Fung Yunihastuti, Evy Zeuzem, Stefan Zuckerman, Eli Razavi, Homie A. |
Issue Date: | 2022 |
Publisher: | ELSEVIER INC |
Source: | Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology, 7 (5) , p. 396 -415 |
Abstract: | Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
Notes: | Blach, S (corresponding author), Ctr Dis Anal Fdn, Lafayette, CO 80026 USA. sblach@cdafound.org |
Keywords: | Hepacivirus;Humans;Infant, Newborn;Pandemics;Prevalence;Viremia;COVID-19;Hepatitis A;Hepatitis C |
Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/37965 |
e-ISSN: | 2468-1253 |
DOI: | 10.1016/S2468-1253(21)00472-6 |
ISI #: | 000820975100014 |
Rights: | 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
Category: | A1 |
Type: | Journal Contribution |
Validations: | ecoom 2023 |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications
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