Measles epidemic in Southern Vietnam: an age-stratified spatio-temporal model for infectious disease counts

Abstract

Measles resurged in Vietnam between 2018 and 2020, especially in the Southern region. The proportion of children with measles infection showed quite some variation at the provincial level. We applied a spatio-temporal endemic-epidemic modelling framework for age-stratified infectious disease counts using measles surveillance data collected in Southern Vietnam between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2020. We found that disease transmission within age groups was greatest in young children aged 0-4 years whereas a relatively high between-group transmission was observed in older age groups (5-14 years, 15-24 years and 25+ years groups). At the provincial level, spatial transmission followed an age-dependent distance decay with measles spread mainly depending on local and neighbouring transmission. Our study helped to clarify the measles transmission dynamics in a more detailed fashion with respect to age strata, time and space. Findings from this study may help determine proper strategies in measles outbreak control including promotion of age-targeted intervention programmes in specific areas.