Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/39103
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dc.contributor.authorReichmuth, Martina L.-
dc.contributor.authorHodcroft, Emma B.-
dc.contributor.authorRiou, Julien-
dc.contributor.authorNeher, Richard A.-
dc.contributor.authorHENS, Niel-
dc.contributor.authorAlthaus, Christian L.-
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-03T08:01:16Z-
dc.date.available2023-01-03T08:01:16Z-
dc.date.issued2022-
dc.date.submitted2022-12-23T13:55:47Z-
dc.identifier.citationEpidemics, 41 (Art N° 100654)-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1942/39103-
dc.description.abstractDuring the summers of 2020 and 2021, the number of confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in Switzerland remained at relatively low levels, but grew steadily over time. It remains unclear to what extent epidemic growth during these periods was a result of the relaxation of local control measures or increased traveling and subsequent importation of cases. A better understanding of the role of cross-border-associated cases (imports) on the local epidemic dynamics will help to inform future surveillance strategies. We analyzed routine surveillance data of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland from 1 June to 30 September 2020 and 2021. We used a stochastic branching process model that accounts for superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 to simulate epidemic trajectories in absence and in presence of imports during summer 2020 and 2021. The Swiss Federal Office of Public Health reported 22,919 and 145,840 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 from 1 June to 30 September 2020 and 2021, respectively. Among cases with known place of exposure, 27% (3,276 of 12,088) and 25% (1,110 of 4,368) reported an exposure abroad in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Without considering the impact of imported cases, the steady growth of confirmed cases during summer periods would be consistent with a value of Re that is significantly above the critical threshold of 1. In contrast, we estimated Re at 0.84 (95% credible interval, CrI: 0.78-0.90) in 2020 and 0.82 (95% CrI: 0.74-0.90) in 2021 when imported cases were taken into account, indicating that the local Re was below the critical threshold of 1 during summer. In Switzerland, cross-border-associated SARS-CoV-2 cases had a considerable impact on the local transmission dynamics and can explain the steady growth of the epidemic during the summers of 2020 and 2021.-
dc.description.sponsorshipMR, NH, and CA received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program - project EpiPose (grant numbers 101003688). EH, RH, and CA were supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant numbers 196046). JR was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant numbers 174281). We would like to thank the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) for providing surveillance data. Model simulations were performed on UBELIX (http://www.id.unibe.ch/hpc), the HPC cluster at the University of Bern.-
dc.language.isoen-
dc.publisherELSEVIER-
dc.rights2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).-
dc.subject.otherSARS-CoV-2-
dc.subject.otherImport-
dc.subject.otherCross -border -associated cases-
dc.subject.otherTravel-
dc.subject.otherSummer-
dc.titleImpact of cross-border-associated cases on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland during summer 2020 and 2021-
dc.typeJournal Contribution-
dc.identifier.volume41-
local.bibliographicCitation.jcatA1-
dc.description.notesReichmuth, ML (corresponding author), Univ Bern, Inst Social & Prevent Med, Mittelstr 43, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.-
dc.description.notesmartina.reichmuth@ispm.unibe.com-
local.publisher.placeRADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS-
local.type.refereedRefereed-
local.type.specifiedArticle-
local.bibliographicCitation.artnr100654-
local.type.programmeH2020-
local.relation.h2020101003688-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100654-
dc.identifier.pmid36444785-
dc.identifier.isi000891743900003-
dc.contributor.orcidReichmuth, Martina L./0000-0001-9345-851X-
local.provider.typewosris-
local.description.affiliation[Reichmuth, Martina L.; Hodcroft, Emma B.; Riou, Julien; Althaus, Christian L.] Univ Bern, Inst Social & Prevent Med, Bern, Switzerland.-
local.description.affiliation[Hodcroft, Emma B.; Neher, Richard A.] Swiss Inst Bioinformat, Lausanne, Switzerland.-
local.description.affiliation[Riou, Julien] Fed Off Publ Hlth, Liebefeld, Switzerland.-
local.description.affiliation[Neher, Richard A.] Univ Basel, Biozentrum, Basel, Switzerland.-
local.description.affiliation[Hens, Niel] Hasselt Univ, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinformat, Data Sci Inst, Hasselt, Belgium.-
local.description.affiliation[Hens, Niel] Univ Antwerp, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst, Ctr Hlth Econ Res & Modelling Infect Dis, Antwerp, Belgium.-
local.description.affiliation[Reichmuth, Martina L.] Univ Bern, Inst Social & Prevent Med, Mittelstr 43, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.-
local.uhasselt.internationalyes-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
item.fullcitationReichmuth, Martina L.; Hodcroft, Emma B.; Riou, Julien; Neher, Richard A.; HENS, Niel & Althaus, Christian L. (2022) Impact of cross-border-associated cases on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland during summer 2020 and 2021. In: Epidemics, 41 (Art N° 100654).-
item.accessRightsOpen Access-
item.validationecoom 2023-
item.contributorReichmuth, Martina L.-
item.contributorHodcroft, Emma B.-
item.contributorRiou, Julien-
item.contributorNeher, Richard A.-
item.contributorHENS, Niel-
item.contributorAlthaus, Christian L.-
crisitem.journal.issn1755-4365-
crisitem.journal.eissn1878-0067-
Appears in Collections:Research publications
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