Exploring human mixing patterns based on time use and social contact data and their implications for infectious disease transmission models

Abstract

Background: The increasing availability of data on social contact patterns and time use provides invaluable information for studying transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Social contact data provide information on the interaction of people in a population whereas the value of time use data lies in the quantifcation of exposure patterns. Both have been used as proxies for transmission risks within in a population and the combination of both sources has led to investigate which contacts are more suitable to describe these transmission risks. Methods: We used social contact and time use data from 1707 participants from a survey conducted in Flanders, Belgium in 2010–2011. We calculated weighted exposure time and social contact matrices to analyze age- and gender-specifc mixing patterns and to quantify behavioral changes by distance from home. We compared the value of both separate and combined data sources for explaining seroprevalence and incidence data on parvovirus-B19, Varicella-Zoster virus (VZV) and infuenza like illnesses (ILI), respectively. Results: Assortative mixing and inter-generational interaction is more pronounced in the exposure matrix due to the high proportion of time spent at home. This pattern is less pronounced in the social contact matrix, which is more impacted by the reported contacts at school and work. The average number of contacts declined with distance. On the individual-level, we observed an increase in the number of contacts and the transmission potential by distance when travelling. We found that both social contact data and time use data provide a good match with the seroprevalence and incidence data at hand. When comparing the use of diferent combinations of both data sources, we found that the social contact matrix based on close contacts of at least 4 h appeared to be the best proxy for parvovirus-B19 transmission. Social contacts and exposure time were both on their own able to explain VZV seroprevalence data though combining both scored best. Compared with the contact approach, the time use approach provided the better ft to the ILI incidence data. Conclusions: Our work emphasises the common and complementary value of time use and social contact data for analysing mixing behavior and analysing infectious disease transmission. We derived spatial, temporal, age-, genderand distance-specifc mixing patterns, which are informative for future modelling studies.