Kenya's Low Carbon Futures: An Assessment Using the KCERT Model

Abstract

KCERT 2050 is a modelling tool designed to assist in the identification and evaluation of synergies and trade-offs within sectoral decarbonization pathways for Kenya. KCERT 2050 is positioned as a user-friendly and dynamic tool that bridges complex energy systems and emissions models with integrated impact assessment tools, aimed at aiding decision making towards carbon neutrality in both public and private sectors. The tool considers greenhouse gas emissions from various economic sectors and is validated through a collaborative process involving experts from diverse backgrounds. This study uses KCERT 2050 to examine the prospects of achieving a net-zero emissions pathway by 2050. In the baseline scenario, a significant emission trajectory is observed, with the transport sector emerging as the largest contributor. Transitioning to the net-zero pathway reveals substantial reductions across key sectors, such as transport, industry, and land use, driven by strategies including electrification, waste reduction, and afforestation. The sensitivity analysis underscores the potential for emission mitigation through various levers, including land use optimization and the adoption of cleaner transportation modes. In conclusion, our findings emphasize the potential and feasibility of Kenya's ambitious net-zero emissions target. To attain this goal, it is imperative to prioritize sustainable land use and innovative waste management strategies.