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Title: | Reflections On Epidemiological Modeling To Inform Policy During The COVID-19 Pandemic In Western Europe, 2020-23 | Authors: | Jit, Mark Ainslie, Kylie Althaus, Christian CAETANO, Constantino Colizza, Vittoria PAOLOTTI, Daniela Beutels, Philippe WILLEM, Lander Edmunds, John Nunes, Baltazar Namorado, Sonia FAES, Christel Low, Nicola Wallinga, Jacco HENS, Niel |
Issue Date: | 2023 | Publisher: | PROJECT HOPE | Source: | HEALTH AFFAIRS, 42 (12) , p. 1630 -1636 | Abstract: | We reflect on epidemiological modeling conducted throughout the COVID-19 pandemic in Western Europe, specifically in Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Western Europe was initially one of the worst-hit regions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Western European countries deployed a range of policy responses to the pandemic, which were often informed by mathematical, computational, and statistical models. Models differed in terms of temporal scope, pandemic stage, interventions modeled, and analytical form. This diversity was modulated by differences in data availability and quality, government interventions, societal responses, and technical capacity. Many of these models were decisive to policy making at key junctures, such as during the introduction of vaccination and the emergence of the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants. However, models also faced intense criticism from the press, other scientists, and politicians around their accuracy and appropriateness for decision making. Hence, evaluating the success of models in terms of accuracy and influence is an essential task. Modeling needs to be supported by infrastructure for systems to collect and share data, model development, and collaboration between groups, as well as two-way engagement between modelers and both policy makers and the public. | Notes: | Jit, M (corresponding author), London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London, England. mark.jit@lshtm.ac.uk |
Keywords: | Humans;SARS-CoV-2;Europe;Policy;Pandemics;COVID-19 | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/42774 | ISSN: | 0278-2715 | e-ISSN: | 0278-2715 | DOI: | 10.1377/hlthaff.2023.00688 | Rights: | This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BYNC-ND 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute this work provided the original work is properly cited, not altered, and not used for commercial purposes. See https://creativecommons .org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
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