Behavior and infectious disease dynamics: applications using pandemic social contacts, Varicella-zoster virus transmission modeling with cost-effectiveness analysis, and Respiratory Syncytial Virus seasonality

Abstract

Originally, this dissertation had two main objectives. First, to formulate a mathematical model and integrate social contact behavior to explore the impact of CP and HZ vaccination programs in Belgium and further perform cost-effectiveness analyses of these vaccination programs. Second, to formulate mathematical models to explore how different social contact behavior between chronically ill individuals and healthy individuals (i.e., “individuals without chronic illnesses”) influences the dynamics of infectious diseases in a given population. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in December 2019 has hugely impacted the initial objectives of this dissertation and consequently the content thereof. Due to the significant health and economic challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, it was highly relevant to adapt the second objective and shift focus to SARS-CoV-2 related research. In addition, a third objective on understanding drivers of RSV seasonal epidemics was agreed upon. The dissertation consists of four parts; each of the first three parts focuses on a different infectious disease spread through close contacts and employs a different methodology, while part four is devoted to a general discussion. Each part focuses on addressing different epidemiological aspects for the considered close-contact infection, and as such, require a different methodology based on the research question(s) under consideration. Nevertheless, jointly, they all contribute to the overarching aim of the dissertation, which is to characterize and understand the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases spread via close contacts using social contact behavior. This is essential to provide insights that can guide public health decision-making regarding effective prevention and control measures.