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http://hdl.handle.net/1942/43388
Title: | An Efficient Approach to Nowcasting the Time-varying Reproduction Number | Authors: | SUMALINAB, Bryan GRESSANI, Oswaldo HENS, Niel FAES, Christel |
Issue Date: | 2024 | Publisher: | LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS | Source: | Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass., Print), 35 (4) , p. 512 -516 | Abstract: | Estimating the instantaneous reproduction number ( ) in near real time is crucial for monitoring and responding to epidemic outbreaks on a daily basis. However, such estimates often suffer from bias due to reporting delays inherent in surveillance systems. We propose a fast and flexible Bayesian methodology to overcome this challenge by estimating while taking into account reporting delays. Furthermore, the method naturally takes into account the uncertainty associated with the nowcasting of cases to get a valid uncertainty estimation of the nowcasted reproduction number. We evaluate the proposed methodology through a simulation study and apply it to COVID-19 incidence data in Belgium. | Keywords: | Epidemic;Nowcasting;Reporting delay;Reproduction number | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/43388 | ISSN: | 1044-3983 | e-ISSN: | 1531-5487 | DOI: | 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001744 | ISI #: | 001253698000021 | Rights: | 2024 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal. | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
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