Impact of mangrove forests on malaria prevalence in coastal Africa: a spatial analysis of ecosystem health and disease dynamics

Abstract

Mangrove forests provide essential ecosystem services to coastal communities in tropical and subtropical regions, yet they have historically been linked to increased infectious disease risk. The actual influence of mangrove forests on disease prevalence remains unclear. This study examines the relationship between mangrove cover, ecosystem health, and malaria prevalence across coastal Africa from 1996 to 2020 using a spatial analysis. By integrating data on mangrove cover, vegetation health, climate, and socio-economic factors into a structural equation model, we assessed direct and indirect effects on malaria prevalence alongside African coastlines. Our results show a weak positive association between mangrove cover and malaria prevalence, but a negative association between mangrove health (i.e. vegetation index as a proxy) and malaria. Temperature anomalies, agricultural expansion, and urbanisation are key drivers. In conclusion, while mangroves moderately influence malaria prevalence in coastal Africa, healthy mangrove ecosystems may help mitigate these effects.