Beyond silicon: Thin-film tandem as an opportunity for photovoltaics supply chain diversification and faster power system decarbonization out to 2050

Abstract

In the last decade, the manufacturing capacity of silicon, the dominant PV technology, has increasingly been concentrated in China. This coincided with PV cost reduction, while, at the same time, posing risks to PV supply chain security. Recent advancements of novel perovskite tandem PV technologies as an alternative to traditional silicon-based PV provide opportunities for diversification of the PV manufacturing capacity and for increasing the GHG emission benefit of solar PV. Against this background, we estimate the current and future cost-competitiveness and GHG emissions of a set of already commercialized as well as emerging PV technologies for different production locations (China, USA, EU), both at residential and utility-scale. We find EU and USA-manufactured thin-film tandems to have 2–4 % and 0.5–2 % higher costs per kWh and 37–40 % and 32–35 % less GHG emissions per kWh at residential and utility-scale, respectively. Our projections indicate that they will also retain competitive costs (up to 2 % higher) and a 20 % GHG emissions advantage per kWh in 2050.