Quantifying and Mitigating the Environmental Disease Burden and Health Inequalities in Urban and Transport planning

Abstract

In this thesis, Bram Vandeninden presents innovative research on how urban and transport planning decisions impact public health through environmental stressors such as air pollution and limited green space. The research stands out by integrating detailed environmental and socio-economic data, each with their own spatial and seasonal variation, into health impact assessments. By combining this information with health indicators such as mortality rates and epidemiological risk estimates, the thesis reveals where and when people are most at risk. This multidimensional approach enables more precise and context-sensitive insights into how urban environments influence public health and contribute to health inequalities.It also explores how targeted strategies, like improving local green space or reducing traffic, can prevent disease, especially in vulnerable communities. In a counterfactual scenario where cities such as Mechelen, Liège, and Brussels meet WHO guidelines for air pollution and access to green space, the thesis quantifies that more than 10% of cardiovascular deaths and 20% of diabetes cases could be prevented—highlighting the major public health potential of cleaner, greener urban environments.Real-world case studies, such as car-free days in Brussels and Paris, demonstrate how urban policy can lead to measurable health gains. For instance, analyses show that even temporary traffic reductions can dramatically lower nitrogen dioxide levels, by up to 80% in some areas, bringing them below WHO guidelines. Further modelling suggests that, in a hypothetical scenario where such changes were made permanent, up to approximately 30% of childhood asthma cases in high-exposure areas could be prevented.The thesis offers new tools and evidence to guide cities and communities toward healthier and more equitable environments.