Future Burden of Heat on Mortality in Flanders: A Modeling Approach Accounting for Climate and Population Dynamics

Abstract

The increased frequency of extreme heat and heat waves is directly linked to global warming. These phenomena are mostly observed in urban agglomerations that retain a relatively large amount of heat and cause heat stress among people over 65 years of age and young children, resulting in excess mortality. Mapping the health impact of heat, now and in the future, is an important step for preventive climate health policy and aims to identify priority locations and vulnerable target groups, thus allowing policymakers to take effective actions. Unlocking climate health data can increase support for taking climate action. This paper presents the potential impact of heat on the health of the Flemish population under different scenarios, combining health, climate, and land use models in space and time. One corresponds to the actual situation according to demographics and daily temperature, and the two others correspond to projections for the year 2050 that are aligned with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario SSP5-\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$-$$\end{document}8.5. In the first scenario for 2050, where only the effect of climate change is considered, the number of heat-related deaths per summer increases by about three times compared to the actual scenario. In the second scenario for 2050, population projections and the spatial policy plans for 2050 are additionally considered, resulting in a doubling of expected deaths due to heat stress compared to the climate-only scenario. The findings of this study indicate that population growth and densification are important factors in assessing heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios in Flanders. This underscores the need for coordinated efforts between public health initiatives and spatial planning strategies to mitigate the impact of heat stress on the Flemish population.