Global risk mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx in the light of epidemic episodes occurring from 2020 onwards

Abstract

This global study compares environmental niche model outputs of avian influenza pathogen niche constructed for two distinct periods, and uses differences between those outputs to suggest that the changed case numbers and distribution relate to intensification of chicken and duck farming, and extensive cultivation. While a useful update to existing niche models of highly pathogenic avian influenza, the justification for the use of environmental niche models to explore land cover change as a driver of changed case epidemiology is incomplete. Abstract Avian influenza (AI) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting poultry and wild water birds, posing significant global challenges due to its high mortality rates and economic impacts. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks, particularly those caused by H5N1 and its variants , have surged since 1959. The HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses have notably expanded their geographical reach, affecting numerous countries, diverse avian species, and now mammals. Using an ecological niche modelling approach, this study aims to elucidate the environmental factors associated with increased HPAI H5 cases since 2020, investigate potential shifts in ecological niches, and predict new areas suitable for viral circulation. We developed ecological niche models for HPAI cases in wild and domestic birds across two distinct periods: 2015-2020 and 2020-2022. Key environmental predictors include chicken and duck population density, human density, distance to water bodies, and land cover variables. Post-2020, we observe increased relative influence of predictors such as intensive chicken population density and cultivated vegetation. Risk maps reveal notable ecological suitability for HPAI H5 circulation in Europe, Asia, and the Americas, with significant expansions of at-risk areas post-2020. Wild bird H5 occurrences appear primarily correlated with urban areas and open water regions. Our analyses also highlight a potential shift in affected wild bird species diversity, with more avian species, particularly sea birds, impacted post-2020. Overall,