Biogenic Carbon Storage in the Technosphere

Abstract

Considerable amounts of biogenic carbon (bio-C) are stored in the global technosphere, yet the magnitude, distribution, and longevity of this storage remain poorly understood. This study quantifies annual bio-C flows into durable goods (gross additions to stock, GAS) and landfills across the global economy using Multi-Regional Supply-Use Tables and detailed extension accounts for 2011. We develop a novel material flow analysis framework that distinguishes feedstock uses from GAS, and apply lifetime-based discharge modeling until 2100 to track end-of-life bio-C fate across recycling, landfill, and emission pathways. In 2011, 0.96 +/- 0.15 gigatons of bio-C (GtC/year) was stored in GAS and landfills. However, product lifespans constrain long-term storage potential as 46% of stored carbon is going to be discharged before 2050. Sensitivity analyses on product lifetime assumptions, lifetime distribution functions, and the methane generation factor in landfills reveal substantial variability in both the retention of bio-C and the timing and magnitude of associated emissions. Furthermore, improved landfill management could reduce cumulative methane-related global warming impacts by up to 16%. Our findings highlight the temporal dynamics of bio-C storage in the technosphere and underscore the importance of extending product lifetimes, increasing recycling rates, and improving landfill management to support climate change mitigation strategies.