Grade Retention Across Borders: A Cross-Country Analysis of the Role of Schools

Abstract

Grade retention - although widely used - remains controversial because of its implications for equity and long-term outcomes. While student-level predictors are well documented, less is known about how school and system characteristics shape grade retention practices across countries. Adopting a multilevel perspective, this study examines (1) which school-level characteristics are related to grade retention in lower-secondary education and (2) whether these relationships vary by national educational stratification. Using PISA 2018 data from 124,126 students in 5,693 schools across 24 systems, we estimate three-level regression models. School composition, within-class ability grouping, and shortages of educational materials are linked to grade retention probability, net of individual characteristics. Cross-level interaction analyses show that educational material shortages predict higher grade retention likelihoods only in low-stratification systems, while the association with within-class ability grouping is substantially lower in these contexts. These findings underscore that grade retention practices are shaped by both institutional structures and school organisation.