Dynamic shift in the dominant transmission route of clade Ib monkeypox virus across networks with sexual and nonsexual contacts

Abstract

The intensifying outbreaks of the novel monkeypox virus clade Ib in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have raised global concern about the potential for wider epidemic spread. Some clade Ib mpox outbreaks have shown a distinct transmission pattern in which transmission associated with both sexual and nonsexual contacts coexist. Here, we characterize these outbreaks in a network epidemic model, which incorporates sexual and nonsexual contacts, and project age- and route-specific transmission potentials under a wide range of scenarios. Our analyses suggest that the dominant route of transmission may shift over time from sexual to nonsexual contacts, which leads to larger epidemics. The age groups contributing most to overall infections and mortality also change over time, suggesting that target groups for intervention should be adjusted accordingly. For countries at risk of travel-associated mpox outbreaks, these findings highlight the importance of monitoring evolving monkeypox virus transmission patterns and interacting transmission routes to support timely and effective control measures.