Transit-associated land use patterns in selected station areas along Dar es Salaam's Bus rapid transit phase one corridor: A longitudinal assessment from 2005 to 2025

Abstract

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems can reshape urban forms by influencing land-use patterns along their corridors. However, despite the rapid expansion of BRT systems across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), there is limited longitudinal evidence of their association with land-use transformation. This study employs a spatially Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) with ridge regression to examine the links between the introduction of Dar es Salaam's BRT Phase One (DBRT-1) and land-use changes in selected stations along the corridor from 2005 to 2025 across five zones. Using log-transformed indicators for residential, commercial, mixed-use, and built-up land use, the results showed a consistent decline in residential land-use over time (2.1-5% across zones; a 7.9% drop postBRT). In contrast, commercial land-use increased, particularly within 200-400 m of the corridor, increasing by 6% during the intervention year. Mixed land use showed the strongest growth, expanding by 11.6% within 200-500 m. Although the immediate effect on the built-up area was not significant, a 4.5% increase was observed in the post-intervention period. These results provide spatial evidence of land-use patterns over two decades at selected stations associated with the BRT system in SSA. They showed that DBRT-1 is associated with increased commercialization and mixed-use intensification, alongside declining residential use, which reflects the redevelopment pressures in the study area. The findings reveal a divergence between the observed land-use trends and the city's intended transit-oriented development framework, underscoring the need for flexible, formbased planning approaches that guide redevelopment, reduce displacement risks, and support inclusive development of the corridor.