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Title: The frequency and severity of road traffic accidents investigated on the basis of state space methods
Authors: HERMANS, Elke 
WETS, Geert 
Issue Date: 2005
Source: European Transport Conference, Straatsburg, Frankrijk, 3-5 oktober, 2005.
Abstract: In this paper we investigate the frequency and severity of road traffic accidents in Belgium from January 1974 to December 1999. We describe the time series in order to discover the trend, quantify the impact of explanatory variables and predict the frequency and severity of accidents and casualties for 2000 and 2001. Laws, weather and economic conditions had a significant influence. The methodology used throughout the analysis is state space methods. The fourth objective is a comparison between this study and the results of an earlier research where a regression model with autoregressive moving average(ARMA) errors was used on the same data.
Keywords: traffic safety; time series; trend; seasonal; explanatory model; state space methodology; prediction
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Category: C2
Type: Proceedings Paper
Appears in Collections:Research publications

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