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http://hdl.handle.net/1942/7914
Title: | Estimating the impact of vaccination using age-time dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B | Authors: | HENS, Niel AERTS, Marc SHKEDY, Ziv KIMANI, Peter Kung'U KOJOUHOROVA, Mira VAN DAMME, Pierre Beutels, P. |
Issue Date: | 2008 | Publisher: | Cambridge University Press | Source: | EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, 136. p. 341-351 | Abstract: | The objective of this study is to model the age-time dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposes to use a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible nonparametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, it is shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79%-84%). Moreover, it is shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage; a smooth force of infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24. | Keywords: | Incidence; Force of Infection; Hepatitis B; Vaccination; Generalized Additive Models | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/7914 | DOI: | 10.1017/S0950268807008692 | ISI #: | 000259198300006 | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution | Validations: | ecoom 2009 |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Hep B paper final.doc | Non Peer-reviewed author version | 708 kB | Microsoft Word | View/Open |
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