China's quantitative expansion phase: exponential growth but low impact

Abstract

It is shown that although China’s publication share in the world has been increasing exponentially, its impact defined as the number of citations per publication lags far behind. This state of affairs is expressed as a ‘quantitative expansion phase’. China’s science needs to move from the ‘quantitative expansion’ phase in which it is nowadays to a ‘rising quality’ phase. Correspondingly scientists’ motivation for publishing papers must shift from ‘driven by benefit’ to ‘driven by excellence and timeliness’. Currently, China’s science although blending into the world, is not yet a full player in its major league. Yet, all growth-related graphs show an exponential increase. Moreover, doubling times calculated in this article are clear indications that, despite obvious problems and short-comings, the quality of Chinese research as a whole is increasing very quickly. We conclude that, if the necessary measures are taken and the observed exponentially increasing trend continues, the impact of Chinese research results will soon catch up with that of other major countries.