Development of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat in Belgium

Abstract

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) according to the Codex Alimentarius Principles is conducted to evaluate the risk of human salmonellosis through household consumption of fresh minced pork meat in Belgium. The quantitative exposure assessment is carried out by building a modular risk model, called the METZOON-model, which covers the pork production from farm to fork. In the METZOON-model, the food production pathway is split up in six consecutive modules: (1) primary production, (2) transport and lairage, (3) slaughterhouse, (4) postprocessing, (5) distribution and storage, and (6) preparation and consumption. All the modules are developed to resemble as closely as possible the Belgian situation, making use of the available national data. Several statistical refinements and improved modeling techniques are proposed. The model produces highly realistic results. The baseline predicted number of annual salmonellosis cases is 20,513 (SD 9061.45). The risk is estimated higher for the susceptible population (estimate 4.713 × 10−5; SD 1.466 × 10−5 ) compared to the normal population (estimate 7.704 × 10−6; SD 5.414 × 10−6) and is mainly due to undercooking and to a smaller extent to cross-contamination in the kitchen via cook's hands.