An activity-based modelling framework for air pollution exposure assessment

Abstract

Transport has both positive and negative effects on health. On the one hand, transport connections help people to reach services, maintain contacts and interactions. On the other hand, transport causes annually hundreds of thousands of premature deaths in Europe, not only due to traffic accidents, but also due to air pollution problems. Transport related gaseous and particulate emissions are one of the main sources of air pollution and air pollution is estimated to cause around 370 000 premature deaths a year in the European Union. Due to the negative effects of transport, one of the key challenges of the modern policy making consists of promoting a sustainable transportation system aiming at the prevention or reduction of the negative effects of the transportation system on health and environment. To give more accurate and complete estimates on the impact of (transport) policies on the environment, the use of a modelling framework, taking into account the different causal links between activities, trips, emissions, concentrations and exposure, is however required. This dissertation describes the development and application of a modelling framework that enables the assessment of trips, emissions, concentrations and exposure in The Netherlands. Besides the use of an emission model (MIMOSA) and a dispersion model (AURORA), the research includes the application of an ‘activity-based’ transport model (ALBATROSS) to predict people’s activity-travel behaviour. ...