Using an activity-based framework to determine the effects of a policy measure on population exposure to NO2

Abstract

Few studies have modeled the effects of policy measures on population exposure. In this work we assess for the first time the impact of a policy measure on population exposure to NO2 by using the activity-based model ALBATROSS. Activity-based (AB) models can be of great value in evaluating the effect of integrated policies and measures that have no obvious relation with transport or air quality at first sight. The scenario considered in this study concerns changing the opening hours of shops and allows shopping earlier in the morning and later in the evening. Both emissions and population distribution of this policy measure can be derived from the activity-travel behavior predicted by the AB model. We found that widening opening hours changes the activity pattern of the adult population in the Netherlands. Approximately 6% more non-daily and 0.5% more daily shopping hours are predicted. The change in activity pattern results in more transport (+0.5% more vehicle kilometers driven). As a consequence of this, emissions and air pollutant concentrations were also altered. When matching the concentration maps with the dynamic population, we observe an increase in population exposure to NO2. Absolute differences are small (up to 0.40 µg/m³). On an average weekday NO2 exposure increases by 0.15 µg/m³. The relative change in exposure on an average weekday is 0.4%. In certain neighborhoods and on certain hours a more substantial increase can be observed.